By 2047, the global climate will have veered drastically off course from weather as we know it, if nothing is done to curb greenhouse gas emissions. That's according to a new study published on Wednesday in the journal Nature that predicts when worldwide temperatures will have shifted continuously outside the bounds of the most extreme records of the past 150 years.
If greenhouse gas emissions are stabilized and regulated, that date may be delayed until 2069, said Camilo Mora, a data analyst at the University of Hawaii Manoa and lead author of the study. But either date, he said, is frighteningly close.
"I am 38," Mora said. "That means when all these things are coming down I will be 72 years old. When those numbers start sinking in you realize, 'Wow, this is going to happen in my lifetime.'"
Mora, co-authors Abby Frazier and Ryan Longman, and 12 of Mora's students spent six months sifting through a massive ream of data - 1 million weather maps altogether. Data came from 39 climate models originating from 12 countries and 21 data centers, and included air temperature, ocean acidity, ocean surface temperatures, precipitation and evaporation. They relied on the minimum and maximum temperatures from 1860 through 2005 to define the bounds of climate variability for various locations. Using all this allowed them to calculate a "climate departure" year for each location. That's when the old maximum average temperatures become the new minimum temperatures, extending beyond any climate we have experienced since 1860, Longman explained.
The team illustrated their findings in a map, which you can explore in greater detail here.
"It's crossing a threshold," Frazier said "You can go to any location and find out when the climate will exceed historical precedent."
No comments:
Post a Comment