Trivia On Life Expectancy

Louise's Country Closet

I can’t count how many times I’ve seen people write about how life expectancy has gone up dramatically because of modern medicine,sanitation, technology, or whatever. Often they report (as this site does) (edit: here’s another) that the average life expectancy has increased to near-80 from something under 50 (43 in the first example, 62 in the 1930s in the second). For some time I’ve wondered whether this was life expectancy at birth (and therefore affected by infant mortality), which would be quite different than everyone keeling over before their grandchildren are out of diapers. This site gives the answer:

Life Expectancy by Age, 1850–2004 — Infoplease.com.

…and it’s clear that infant mortality was the issue in the 1800s, not general early death. Looking at white males (the first table) the life expectancy at birth in 1850 was indeed a dismal 38.3 years. But that’s incredibly misleading.
At age 10 the life expectancy had increased to 58.0 years.

The final number goes up for each subsequent column, but the big jump in life expectancy is from 0 to 10:

	Age
Calendar period	0	10	20	30	40	50	60	70	80
White males
18501	38.3	48.0	40.1	34.0	27.9	21.6	15.6	10.2	5.9
18901	42.50	48.45	40.66	34.05	27.37	20.72	14.73	9.35	5.40
1900–19022	48.23	50.59	42.19	34.88	27.74	20.76	14.35	9.03	5.10
1909–19112	50.23	51.32	42.71	34.87	27.43	20.39	13.98	8.83	5.09
1919–19213	56.34	54.15	45.60	37.65	29.86	22.22	15.25	9.51	5.47
1929–1931	59.12	54.96	46.02	37.54	29.22	21.51	14.72	9.20	5.26
1939–1941	62.81	57.03	47.76	38.80	30.03	21.96	15.05	9.42	5.38
1949–1951	66.31	58.98	49.52	40.29	31.17	22.83	15.76	10.07	5.88
1959–19615	67.55	59.78	50.25	40.98	31.73	23.22	16.01	10.29	5.89
1969–19716	67.94	59.69	50.22	41.07	31.87	23.34	16.07	10.38	6.18
1979–1981	70.82	61.98	52.45	43.31	34.04	25.26	17.56	11.35	6.76
1990	72.7	63.5	54.0	44.7	35.6	26.7	18.7	12.1	7.1
1992	73.2	64.0	54.3	45.1	36.0	27.1	19.1	12.4	7.2
1993	73.1	63.8	54.2	44.9	35.9	27.0	18.9	12.3	7.1
1995	73.4	64.1	54.5	45.2	36.1	27.3	19.3	12.5	7.2
1997	74.3	65.0	55.3	45.9	36.7	27.7	19.6	12.7	7.4
1998	74.5	65.2	55.5	46.1	36.8	27.9	19.7	12.8	7.5
1999	74.6	65.3	55.6	46.2	36.9	28.0	19.8	12.9	7.5
2000	74.8	65.4	55.7	46.4	37.1	28.2	20.0	13.0	7.6
2001	75.0	65.6	56.0	46.6	37.3	28.4	20.2	13.2	7.7
2002	75.1	65.7	56.1	46.7	37.4	28.5	20.3	13.3	7.7
2003	75.3	66.0	56.3	46.9	37.6	28.8	20.6	13.5	8.0
20047	75.7	66.3	56.7	47.3	38.0	29.1	20.9	13.7	8.1
White females
18501	40.5	47.2	40.2	35.4	29.8	23.5	17.0	11.3	6.4
18901	44.46	49.62	42.03	35.36	28.76	22.09	15.70	10.15	5.75
1900–19022	51.08	52.15	43.77	36.42	29.17	21.89	15.23	9.59	5.50
1909–19112	53.62	53.57	44.88	36.96	29.26	21.74	14.92	9.38	5.35
1919–19213	58.53	55.17	46.46	38.72	30.94	23.12	15.93	9.94	5.70
1929–1931	62.67	57.65	48.52	39.99	31.52	23.41	16.05	9.98	5.63
1939–1941	67.29	60.85	51.38	42.21	33.25	24.72	17.00	10.50	5.88
1949–1951	72.03	64.26	54.56	45.00	35.64	26.76	18.64	11.68	6.59
1959–19615	74.19	66.05	56.29	46.63	37.13	28.08	19.69	12.38	6.67
1969–19716	75.49	66.97	57.24	47.60	38.12	29.11	20.79	13.37	7.59
1979–1981	78.22	69.21	59.44	49.76	40.16	30.96	22.45	14.89	8.65
1990	79.4	70.1	60.3	50.6	41.0	31.6	23.0	15.4	9.0
1992	79.8	70.4	60.6	50.9	41.2	31.9	23.2	15.6	9.2
1993	79.5	70.1	60.3	50.6	41.0	31.7	23.0	15.3	8.9
1995	79.6	70.2	60.4	50.6	41.0	31.7	23.0	15.4	8.9
1997	79.9	70.5	60.7	50.9	41.3	32.0	23.2	15.5	9.1
1998	80.0	70.6	60.8	51.0	41.4	32.0	23.3	15.6	9.1
1999	79.9	70.5	60.6	50.9	41.3	31.9	23.2	15.5	9.0
2000	80.0	70.5	60.7	50.9	41.3	32.0	23.2	15.5	9.1
2001	80.2	70.8	60.9	51.2	41.6	32.3	23.5	15.7	9.3
2002	80.3	70.8	61.0	51.2	41.6	32.4	23.6	15.8	9.3
2003	80.5	71.0	61.2	51.5	41.9	32.6	23.8	16.0	9.6
20047	80.8	71.3	61.5	51.8	42.1	32.9	24.1	16.2	9.7

Read more: Life Expectancy by Age, 1850–2004 | Infoplease.com http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005140.html#ixzz2jVtBlUEa

see Infoplease for more tables....

The difference in life expectancy for a newborn and a ten year-old doesn’t mean that a newborn could actually expect to live an average of 38.3 years. It means that a newborn faced two distinct possible futures: he had somewhere between a 60 and 66% chance of living 58 years; and he had somewhere between a 34 and 40% chance of not living to see double-digits. The variance is due to the unknown average age of death for under-10s. If they all died as infants, then roughly 34% died that way. If they all died as 9 year-olds (far less likely it would seem) then 40% of them died that way. In any case, it’s fair to say that the majority of the reported prolonging of life is due to reducing childhood mortality.

Comparing just life expectancy for 20 year-olds, in 1850 a young man could expect to live to 60.1. In 2004, that same man could expect to live to 76.7. That’s a significant improvement, but considering that in 1850 the germ theory of disease was just being formalized, it seems a little less impressive

http://gcanyon.wordpress.com/2009/06/25/life-expectancy-in-the-1800s-not-as-bad-as-reported/